Public Health Sciences Course Program (PHS)

Prognostic Research: Concepts and Models

Prognosis is the probability that a specific event will occur in the future. Prognostic Research is fundamental to clinical decision making, healthcare policy, and discovering new approaches to patient management. In this course we describe the basic concepts used to develop, validate, and implement a prognostic model in clinical practice and discuss how a web-based calculator might be constructed to give a useful decision-making tool. In addition, we consider the reporting and impact of prognostic models and how the quality of prognostic research might be improved in order that prognostic information may be translated into clinically useful decision tools.

Ziele

By the end of this course participants will have:

  • An understanding of different types of Prognostic Research
  • An understanding of how prognosis is used in clinical decision making and in discovering new approaches to managing patients
  • Practical experience of analysing and assessing potential prognostic factors
  • Practical experience of developing and validating a prognostic model

Inhalte

The course will guide you through the main steps in prognostic modelling. As well as using standard regression techniques, you will be introduced to penalization as a modern estimation method that can improve the predictive ability of a model. We will present methods to select prognostic variables and investigate their form (using for example with splines), compare and choose candidate models using information criteria, and validate the chosen model. Although statistical theory will be discussed in the lectures, the emphasis will be on practical application of the prognostic modelling. The practicals will give you experience of selecting prognostic factors and assessing them, choosing between different models, and fitting and validating a prognostic model.

Arbeitsweise / Programm

Workshop with lectures and practicals.

Basisinformationen

Nummer E046.219.25
Termine

Wed, 12.11.2025
Thu, 13.11.2025
Fri, 14.11.2025
 

Zeiten 09:15-16:30
Kursort

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine ISPM
Mittelstrasse 43,
3012 Bern

room 220, second floor

Situationsplan
Leitung

Professor MD Matthias Egger, Professor Georgia Salanti, PhD Orestis Efthimiou
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern

Plätze max. 25 Personen
Kurssprache English
Anmeldefrist 28.10.2025
Format Individual event von Public Health Sciences Course Program
You will receive a certificate of attendance.
Trägerschaft

Faculty of Medicine University of Bern

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)
Public Health Sciences Course Program (PHS)

ECTS-Info

1 ECTS points will be credited for this course

For an accreditation of the ECTS, a minimum of 80% attendance and active participation incl. completion of assignments and assessments are required.

 

root number KSL: 486250

Zielpublikum

PhD students, Post-docs, clinicians and Public Health practitioners interested in the topic.

Besonderes

The course assumes some experience with basic statistical concepts such as standard regression analysis.
Students will have to read several papers before the course and may continue working on the R practicals after the course.

Anmelde- und Aufnahmeverfahren

A tertiary education degree is required. The program manager decides on the final admission. Priority is given to PhD students.

Application process: You are requested to enroll online. Seats will be allocated according to date of enrolment. Three weeks before the course/workshop at the latest, the administration will decide and inform about running or cancelling the course/workshop.

Kosten

Amount still open

Administratives

Registration fees are waived for PhD students of the University of Bern who commit to the whole course attendance. To avoid being invoiced, it is mandatory that you indicate your institute and the matriculation number upon registration for the course. Please note cancellation regulations below.

Course fees for other participant categories:

PostDocs Uni Bern CHF 100
Other participants Uni Bern CHF 300
Participants other academic institutions 600
Other participants CHF 840

Participants completing the entire PHS Course Program benefit from a reduction; overview course fees here.

Annullierungsbestimmungen

After the closing date for registrations, the organisers will decide whether the course can take place. The decision is based on the number of registrations.

These cancellation rules apply to PhD students of the University of Bern.

Processing fee of CHF 100 will be applied for:

  • Cancellations after 2 weeks before the first course day (late cancellations)
  • Participants with course attendance of less than 80% of the on-site course time
  • Absence on the first day of the course (considered as a late cancellation).

Course attendance must be cancelled at the latest 2 weeks before the first course day. Write an email to phs-admin.ispm@unibe.ch.
The cancellation has to be confirmed by the course coordination.
For your registration the General Terms and Conditions of the PHS Course Program apply.

Kontakt

University of Bern
Public Health Sciences Course Program

c/o Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)
Mittelstrasse 43
3012 Bern
Switzerland

Tel: +41 31 684 34 04

phs-admin.ispm@unibe.ch
www.medizin.unibe.ch/phs

Anmeldung